AI Development Concentrates on Fewer and Wealthier Entities

The development of artificial intelligence has increasingly shifted into the hands of well-resourced institutions over the past decades, according to a new study published in the journal Minds and Machines. The analysis by Likun Cao and Xintong Cai supports the view of so-called intellectual property monopoly capitalism, where a few large players control key technological knowledge capital.

The study examines the development of AI technologies from 1976 to 2020 using a comprehensive patent dataset. Patents serve as a window into who is developing AI, what prior knowledge innovations rely on, and to what extent they transform the technological landscape.

As a key tool, researchers use a new metric, the pairwise disruption index. This is used to assess the impact of individual AI inventions on previous technology and how much new solutions reshape the existing knowledge base.

The analysis focuses on three dimensions of the knowledge base emphasized in innovation research: state support, research and development capacity, and the human capital of inventors. The results show a clear trend: AI technologies increasingly concentrate over time in institutions with strong resources and their own research organizations.

The study examines both macro-level background factors, such as public support and corporate research and development investments, and individual-level factors, such as inventors' education and career background. This aims to outline the societal and economic forces driving AI disruption and concentration.

The results provide empirical support for the view that general-purpose technologies like AI do not develop in a decentralized manner but instead accumulate around large players. This can affect both competition in technology markets and who benefits from the economic value related to AI.

Source: Decreasing Disruption and Increasing Concentration of Artificial Intelligence, Minds and Machines.